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Unique
Observations on the BEV Industry Expansion and Challenges - Also
Electric Motorcycle (E-Moto)
Industry
Analyses for the Premium & High-End Segments PART 35 - October 21, 2024
Energica Finally Files for Bankruptcy & Liquidation – What Took So Long Been following you for years, like you owned and loved the K1200RS. We What took so long, indeed. I thought these guys would be out by 2020, when the pan*emic hit. But they somehow maintained their marginal operations through government incentives and corporate overtake of their brand for an additional 4 years. Full disclosure, I know some of the people at Energica and have provided marketing consultation and support to them in the past.
Energica: A Wrong Product at the Wrong Time Energica was formed at a time when the hype for EVs was fever pitched. EVs seemed futuristic and unstoppable. Tesla was about to break all sorts of records and Musk was famously milking his clever Hyperhype PR game.
Back then (and same as today), since the major motorcycle brands had no electric models, this prompted some individuals to think, “Hey, no legacy two-wheel brand is working on EVs, perhaps we can fill the void.” What we didn’t realize in 2015-16, was the sad reality and limitations of EV ownership. Even a decade later, we simply don’t have the battery tech nor the infrastructure to make EVs (of any number of wheels) worthwhile for the masses.
1980s Battery Tech Doesn’t Cut It Lithium batteries were developed in the ‘80s and introduced in 1991. Why are we stuck with a 40-year-old battery tech? Why can’t our phones or laptops in 2024, last a week, let alone a full day? How this primitive battery tech was considered a solution to our transportation needs into the foreseeable future?
Today, electric cars and SUVs are only good for people who live in tempered climates, who have homes with garages and have gone to the hassle and expense of installing a dedicated 240V Level 2 charger (which can charge a typical car in about 10 hours at best, hence ideal for overnight charging). EVs are the worst choice for road trips, because you’d be using almost all your time either worrying about range, or looking for chargers or sitting in your car waiting to be charged. This is why the head of Ford blasted our EV charging infrastructure, after trying to do a simple road trip on the F150 Lightning.
The Great EV Hype and the Disappointment of the Buyers Porsche EV sales have dropped by 50%. Mercedes by 30%. I totally get why Merc EVs aren’t flying out of dealer showrooms. I have written about this before. They are just plain fugly. Their EV exterior designer should have been replaced long ago. Merc has announced that they are planning to follow BMW’s method of just offering standard models in few different variants, such as ICE, EV and possibly hybrid. This is so smart. In contrast to some other brands, BMW and GM are experiencing higher demands for their EVs.
The ICE Ban Not Cometh Speaking of BMW AG, they recently asked the EU to cancel the 2035 ICE ban, because it doesn’t make sense. I have shared my thoughts on the ICE ban before and have predicted that it will get pushed back by at least another decade.
What About Electric Motorcycles Motorcycles, due to their small size, hold limited storage for fuel. Larger bikes, such as sport touring, luxotourers, mega ADV variants try to squeeze more fuel into their expanded tanks, but they can never compete with even the most compact of cars in fuel capacity.
The same is true with electric motorcycles. There simply isn’t room on a bike to fit enough batteries to create a real world usable range. End of story! Even if someone, somehow, creates a massive bike that can hold 300 real world miles of range (not the 100% total fabrication that is the advertised range), it would have to weigh about 1500 pounds.
Energica's Subpar Charging Systems - A Deep Dive If you find this segment boring, simply scroll down to the insight on Energica’s Moto-E cup racing. All data on Energica charging is from Google.
First a simple lesson. There are 3 levels of charging. Level 1: Normal household 110V plug. Level 2: Commercial slow chargers with about 6 kWh of transfer rate. Level 3: DC Fast Chargers with transfer rates of 50 to 350 kWh.
Some Energica models have the battery capacity of about 20 kWh. In a typical electric car that would last only about 50 miles of sedate driving, on a motorcycle it's more (remember faster drives or rides and aggressive takeoffs drain the battery very quickly). The chargers at your mall, on the street, or perhaps at a park, hotel or garage, are Level 2 and can deliver about 6 kWh. This means, in 1 hour of being plugged in, it can only transmit about 8% of the battery capacity of a typical EV. However, Energica bikes can only handle 3 kWh of transfer rates at Level 2. Therefore, they would have to be parked for 6 hours at these stations to reach a measly 18 kWh. And what do you get from 6 hours of charging on your Sunday ride? Maybe an hour or so of real-world spirited riding or two hours of sedate riding. Ride for 90 mins, stop for 6 hours to charge? This simple math is the key reason why electric motorcycles do not make sense and no one is asking for them either. (Low end e-scooters with limited range and swappable batteries are more suitable.)
How About DC Fast Chargers on Bikes Is there a faster charging alternative for motorcycles? According to Google, no e-motorcycle currently has Level 3 system, except for Energica. If you are on an Energica, the faster charging alternative would be to find actual charging stations (they look like gas stations) with Level 3 DC fast chargers (if there are any near where you are) and to charge the motorcycle much quicker on your Sunday ride. Although some of these charging stations can deliver a whopping 350 kWh of transfer rate, the Energica can only handle 24 kWh of transfer rate at Level 3. Therefore, you can theoretically charge an Energica from empty to full at one of these DC fast charging stations in about an hour, at a cost of about $15 (with fees). In comparison, BMW EVs have a transfer rate of 200 kWh. Keep in mind these fast DC charging locations aren’t as common place in the US.
Moto-E? The Puzzling 'Logic' of Borrowing Money to Go Racing – Against Yourself What was the point of Moto-E races? What did it accomplish? After a few years of Moto-E, Energica got ditched for Ducati without even a thank you. Energica’s demise is text book example of why no startup should EVER go racing (unless they are a racing startup). The only path to dominance is Musk’s Hyperhype. The key to brand dominance for a startup is to hype their brand by paying for and building celeb and influencer endorsements and so on (this is just the tip of the iceberg of a long list of PR actions that needs to be taken, which I won't go into here), and not to thoughtlessly plow borrowed cash into the fire pit of racing (in cup racing no less) and then cry out “why no one cares.”
I did convey to them, on a few occasions, that racing is just a money pit and will not help them sell bikes and they should instead redirect that budget into decent PR and marketing campaigns to help create demand for their new brand. But they wouldn’t hear of it. Also, what exactly is the point of competing against yourself in a cup racing, where all bikes are the same brand? What a waste of resources.
Look, if some billionaire wants to start a motorcycle company and burn money go racing, I am all for it. Motorcycling is supposed to be about fun! But when a startup, with no capital, naively borrows money year after year to finance their cup racing, you know the end is near. Apparently, the Italian government has been paying their salaries through some social services program. This is why I am not surprised that they have shut down, I am just puzzled it took so long. NOTE: I am all for emission-free vehicles and clean air and water. I also love the idea of electric vehicles with their instant torque and quiet and smooth ride. But until we create a revolution in our battery tech, we won’t be impressing the mainstream buyers--you know, the 90%. PART 34 - July 18, 2024 Query from a Reader about the 4-Part My EV Life Below - Parts 30-33 Been following you for years, like you owned and loved the K1200RS. We differ on EV's. Many of your points are fair (weight etc. ) but they smack of the knocks against early PC's. Time will tell. Note EV share is already 50%+ in China.
EDITOR: Thanks for your donation. I am no longer concerned with Tesla, also, I didn’t refer to them in my multipart totally unfiltered My EV Life editorials. What happens with Tesla is no longer relevant, since all the other brands have plenty of EVs to offer and more will emerge next year. I am not sure what you mean by 50%+. Are you suggesting that Tesla has 50% of the Chinese EV market, they don’t, it’s about 7%. Or are you suggesting that their sales have jumped by 50% there, they didn’t, they declined. Reuters: “Tesla's June China-made EV sales down 24.2% y/y.” It’s my prediction that there will be a massive Tesla graveyard (as the battery tech shifts), like those of US war planes in the Southwest deserts post WWII. I am reading a lot of unexpected negative reviews of living with EVs--from Tech and Car sites. People are waking up to the fact that it is more expensive to charge than it is to fuel and EVs waste many thousands of hours every year in charging time, whereas ICE vehicles need zero time. Finally, I stand by my statement that in the US, 80% of the public will not relate to EVs at all and the ICE ban of 2035 will be pushed to 2045. I am pro EVs, but we have been duped. EVs are only suitable for those with houses that have garages that can afford to install a dedicated L2 (240V) charger at home. Dedicated means one per car, otherwise it won’t be sufficient. Considering EVs are also useless in the cold climates, what percentage of the US public fit these demographics? 10%? PART 33 - June 19, 2024
Explosive New Revelations of My Ongoing EV Experiences on Two Legacy Brands - Part 4- The Most Candid, Uncensored and Hype-Free EV Experience Report on Earth and on Musk’s Mars Colony - Final Segment 1) This explosive 100% unique content is not found anywhere else. 2) I love EVs, with any number of wheels, but they do not make sense to vast majority of the public, due to our garbage battery tech that belongs in the 1980s and expensive and time-consuming charging process. 3) EVs only relate to a small percentage of the population with garages, who have a dedicated Level 2 charger at home. 4) Have we been lied to about the efficiency of EVs? 5) All references to EVs in this column mean 2 and 4+ wheels.
In Part 1 of this column, I explained in detail the new terminology that is used in the electric vehicle world, regardless of the number of wheels. In Part 2, I wrote that today’s EVs have very limited range and are extremely heavy for the range that they provide and most of the energy of their batteries is used in pushing the batteries' heavy weight. In Part 3, I broke down in detail the high cost of owning and operating EVs and also presented a formula to calculate real world range for any EV (car, truck, SUV or bike). Please visit MOTO’s website and click on Issues 133, 134 and 135 to read previous segments. If you don’t know MOTO’s website after being around for over 8 years, it’s high time you learn it. Always, refer to our footer, in these eMags, for such info.
Jay Leno “Buys” a 6,500 lbs Rolls Royce Spectre EV for $500,000 or Did He? Holy cow, Leno lost a lot of weight after his parking lot motorcycle crash (or was it something else). I wish you speedy recovery, Jay. I visited his garage back in the ‘00s and did an interview with him for BMW after he had received his K1200RS (his only BMW, as a gift from BMW NA, for a favor he had done for them). In those days he was paying about $28,000 a year for insurance for his whole collection of 2 and 4 wheels (about 200 vehicles); sounds like an OK deal, that's like paying $1,000 a year for only 28 cars or bikes.
Jay Leno's Garage Rolls Royce Spectre Infomercial Jay recently ran a 1-hour special on his YouTube channel to celebrate his “purchase” of a new Rolls Royce Spectre EV. The entire 1-hour video is a sales pitch and infomercial for BMW NA that imports Rolls Royce. That made me realize that he must have either received this half a million dollar Spectre for free or for substantial discount, hence the desire to push the sales pitch real hard. Look, Leno back in the day demanded $200,000+ appearance fees, so a $500K car as a gift to a personality with 3.5 mil subs on YT is not a bad deal.
This $500K EV has an advertised range of only 260 miles, which would translate to about 144 real world miles, based on my new range calculating formula presented in the Part 3 of this unfiltered editorial. Jay mentioned that he uses this Rolls Royce electric only for short local trips, which is the only thing these EVs are good for, since they run out of charge very quickly and are painful to recharge publicly.
Why Driving the Heavy E-Motos, 5000 lbs “Compacts” and the 7000-9000 lbs E-SUVs Don’t Make Sense Mercedes recently announced that they regret committing to EVs so soon in the game. They realize now that the demand and the battery tech are simply not there. BMW motorcycles also said no plans for large E-Motos, only small e-Scooters. Ford can’t sell F150 Lightnings because they weigh 2,000 lbs over the ICE F150. Tesla’s Cybertruck is dead on arrival and keeps getting delayed (latest issue, windshield wipers). Popular Harry’s Garage on YouTube berated the new BMW i5 (5 Series EV) for being so heavy (5,000 lbs) and out of touch with reality and what BMW suppose to represent (performance sedans and coupes). Harry is right, you feel the massive weight of these compact EVs every second you are behind the wheel. And the suspension feels like it's falling apart on every bump as it tries to handle the massive weight.
Korean vs German EVs and Why Koreans Suck Big Time This is Part 4 and the final segment to my EV Life. After testing EVs from 2 legacy car makers from Korea and Germany, I have come to the conclusion that Korean cars are appliances (thumbs down) and German cars are driver centric (thumbs up). I also can now share the identity of these 2 EVs which both sell in the US$50K range and at about $60K as tested. The Korean was a Hyundai Ionic 5 SEL dual motor (AWD) and the German was BMW i4 eDrive 40 rear drive. Both these "compact" EVs weigh at 4,700 lbs and get to 60 mph at a slow 6 seconds. The Hyundai weighs a bit more because it's dual motor, although 98% of the time the power is on the rear wheel (does have Snow all wheel drive mode).
Hyundai is Selling a Sub $25K EV for $60K I disliked the Ionic 5, especially as priced; it belongs in the $25K range along with Chevy Bolt. It felt like an appliance and I drove it as such. I dropped it off after only 1,000 miles. This so-called “premium” EV (SEL is a high trim level) with a MSRP of $50K before options and taxes (around $60K as tested), had an interior of a utility pickup truck (some tough black fabric junk). I was offended each time I got into this machine. It seemed like an interior for a $15K car. After driving it for 2 days, I noticed that I am limping. Why am I limping all of a sudden? I am fit, I workout daily and I go for runs a couple of times a week. I ask myself, what is the newest thing in my life, the answer, this Korean $10K car (its value decreases each time I mention it) being sold for a whopping $60K. I took a bath towel, folded it a few times until it was at about 18” square and 3" thick and placed it on the driver seat and within 1 day my limp (leg cramp) was gone. I disliked this Korean EV and let it drive itself. I would put it in Adaptive Cruise at all speeds, just so I didn’t need to drive it.
Adaptive
Cruise
The Germans The BMW EV, in total 180 to the Korean, is filled with passion. BMW car division is undergoing a renaissance (their motorcycle division, however, is in a coma). BMW car division seems to have come out of a deep fog and are killing it. The i4 eDrive 40 which was also about $60K as tested, had an interior that belonged in a $80K car. The interior is even nicer than the exterior. I was looking for excuses just to drive it. These are the core reasons why a lot of us in MOTO land love Euro premium vehicles, regardless of the number of wheels. BTW, I do like EVs, as long as I don't have to own them.
Final Thoughts We have been pushed way too prematurely into a false EV utopia. EVs have half the range of ICE vehicles. They cost way more to charge publicly than fueling ICE vehicles. You can’t drive them to near empty, like you do with ICE, due to severe lack of charging stations. They shred tires and destroy suspensions due to their massive weight. You can’t go for road trips, unless you want to waste most of your time on charging hassles. They have garbage resale value. They take forever to charge. And they lose charge rapidly. The worst crime of all, they use most of their energy just to push their heavy batteries. Today's EVs relate to only a small percentage of the population who have homes with garages and 240V L2 dedicated charging stations. The real EV revolution will not start until we have revolutionized our battery tech and took it out of the 1980s. And that may not happen for another 10-15 years. I predict that the 2035 ICE ban will be pushed to 2045. I am extremely disappointed by these findings after about 4,500 miles of real world, daily EV testing in the EV-friendly State of CA. I can only imagine this nightmare being multiplied by a factor of 10 in other states. PART 32 - May 21, 2024
Explosive New Revelations of My Ongoing EV Experiences on Two Legacy Brands - Part 3 - The Most Candid, Uncensored and Hype-Free EV Experience Report on Earth and on Musk’s Mars Colony This explosive 100% unique content is not found anywhere else. Or, I love EVs, with any number of wheels, but they do not make sense at all, due to our garbage battery tech.
In Part 1 of this column, I explained in detail the new terminology that is used in the electric vehicle world, regardless of the number of wheels. In Part 2, I wrote that today’s EVs (all references to EVs in this column mean 2 and 4+ wheels) have very limited range and are extremely heavy for the range that they provide and most of the energy of their batteries is used in pushing their own weight. Please visit MOTO’s website and click on Issues 133 and 134 to read previous segments. If you don’t know MOTO’s website after being around for over 8 years, it’s high time you learn it. Always, refer to our footer, in these eMags, for such info.
My Formula for Calculating Real-World Range of EVs and E-Motos I have created a simple formula to calculate the real-world range of any electric vehicle. The real-world range is 2/3rd or 66% of the advertised range, if ridden/driven like a great grandma, minus 30 miles. The real-world range is ½ or 50% of the advertised range, or less, if driven harder, such as fast starts at every light and so on, minus 30 miles. So, real world range is 66% of advertised for slow driving/riding, minus 30 miles.
Why minus 30 miles? Because unlike an ICE car/bike, you can’t drive/ride these vehicles to near empty, since charging stations aren’t easily available, whereas gas stations are plentiful. In an ICE car/bike, you can drive it near empty and just pop into a gas station and fill up in less than 5 minutes, with no wait. This is not possible for EVs. So, you’d need at least a 30-mile buffer to find your next charging station in blue states, and maybe 50 miles in other, less EV friendly, states.
Here are two examples of this formula for an electric car and bike. If an e-car advertises 300 miles of range, the actual range is 200 miles (2/3rd), minus 30 miles. So, the real actual range is 170 miles if driven slowly. Or 150 miles, minus 30 miles, which is 120 miles if driven harder. If a so-called premium e-moto advertises 200 miles of range, the real-world range is about 135 miles, minus 30, which is 105 miles, if driven slowly. This is the sad truth about all EVs, that no one talks about, and the garbage battery tech that we are stuck with.
If you don’t have a dedicated at home L2 charger just for your e-vehicle don’t bother going electric. If you plan to actually go for rides on a premium electric motorcycle, you can only ride for about an hour or so and then must stop for an hour to charge. This time frame also includes riding to charging stations that maybe 15 miles away (if you are lucky) and back. This is idiotic.
What Kawasaki Knows? When I released the news about the new e-Ninjas from Kawa, that came with a base price of $7,500 and a weight of about 300 lbs, I praised them for understanding that the only e-tech currently viable for motorcycles is small, light, and cheap urban machines. These good-looking Kawas have an advertised range of only 40 miles, which by using my formula would mean they have a real-world range of 0. However, you should be able to ride them for about 15-20 miles round trip if keeping it easy. If a rider wants to ride it like they stole it, I doubt the bike can last even 10 miles. However, for only urban use, it’s not bad.
The 1,700 lbs Honda Gold Wing EV If Honda were to release an electric Gold Wing with an advertised range of 400 miles, that bike would have to weigh about 1,700 pounds. The battery tech is not there, at all, for large displacement equivalent electric motorcycles. The compact EV cars weigh in at 5,000 lbs. The Hummer EV weighs 9,000 lbs. Ford F150 Lightning weighs 2,000 lbs more than the ICE variant of the F150 (that’s why it’s not selling). The new Merc e-G Wagon is almost 7,000 pounds. Remember the time engineers would proudly say that they managed to shed 15 pounds off of a new sport bike? This sh*t is too sad to report on. Are we heading the wrong direction?
EV Charging is Very Expensive Since EV vehicles have such a short range, they need to get recharged frequently. Let’s compare a German compact car that is offered in EV and ICE and calculate their charging/fueling costs. The ICE variant of this compact German sedan produces about 450 miles of range. The EV version has a bogus (advertised) range of 300 miles, but an actual range of 170 miles (based on my formula, and tested by me after 2,500 miles, plus another 1,000 miles on the Korean EV). If you don’t have a dedicated at home Level 2 charging that can charge these EVs in about 10 hours, you would have to keep going to charging stations and charge them for about 55 cents per kilowatt hour. (The fee ranges from 45 to about 70 cents, depending on time of day.) This compact German sedan has a 80 kWh battery, hence it would take 80X0.55=$44 to charge from empty, every time, for only about 170 to 180 miles of real-world range. This is extremely expensive. Let’s not forget the hours wasted on charging at the stations. On the other hand, the ICE variant, with 450-mile range, out of a 15-gallon fuel tank, would cost about $83 to fill up in CA and about $57 to fill up elsewhere, again, for a whopping range of 450 miles. This is not even close. EVs are almost 3 times as expensive to fill up (recharge) as ICE variants, and much more time consuming, without dedicated at home L2 charging.
End of Part 3. As a fan of EVs, I am saddened by this new discovery. And further disappointed that no one has mentioned the high cost of charging EVs. Have we been lied to about EV efficiency? Tune in the next issue to learn why Asian brand e-vehicles suck big time. PART 31 - April 18, 2024
My Ongoing EV Experiences on Two Legacy Brands - Part 2 - The Most Candid, Uncensored and Hype-Free EV Experience Report on Earth and on Musk’s Mars Colony My collection of unique, hype- and agenda-free, well-researched, unfiltered and uncensored articles on the state of EVs (2 and 4 wheels) have gotten a lot of attention. Not only BMW execs are quoting MOTO, and Elon Musk attacking my page on his quickly deteriorating Xwitter, but I have also received some notice from legacy car brands who are seriously into EV production. Sadly, none of this is translating into dollars for me. However, I have had access to two new for 2024 EVs from well-known car brands, from Korea and Germany. I will share my experiences, of the 2,500 miles and counting, on the latest tech from these two countries that are aggressively pursuing EVs. You certainly can’t say that about Japan.
NOTE: In Part 1 of this article (below), I explain all the terminology that is used in the electric vehicle world, regardless of the number of wheels. Please refer to Part 1 to learn these terms, otherwise you may not be able to follow this article.
After so far 2,500 miles, with no access to at home Level 2 charging, I am now a bonified expert on EVs, I experienced the 350 kW/h chargers on the Korean crossover and it was amazing. If your car has a 350 kW/h charging system (they are rare) and it is matched with a charger that can deliver the same (also rare), you are golden. You can be out of there in under 20 mins from 40%. Whether superfast charging is good for the life of the battery is another matter. (The short answer is no.)
Most vehicles and DC Fast chargers operate at around 150 kW/h. At that rate, if your vehicle is also capable of accepting 150 kW, it would take about 40 mins for a near full charge from about 40%. If you are really low, like 10% and need to get to 80 or 90%, it will take much longer. Most manufacturers of EVs like to rate their systems from 20 to 80%. Because after 80%, the charging system slows down the rate of transfer. I can use three words to explain this whole paragraph, “very time consuming.” You wait 20-30 mins in line to charge (hoping no one will cut you off), then you wait another 40 mins to charge on a DC Fast charger, also known as Level 3. Forget shopping mall parking lot Level 2s, they will take 10 hours+ to charge the vehicle at the rate of about 7 kW/h.
Now, I understand, why we have an EV growth issue. These electrics are extremely time consuming, I mean, to the point that they will not be manageable for 80% of the public. If you don’t have dedicated at home Level 2 charging, don’t bother. It will take 60+ hours to charge these vehicles with your household plug. At home Level 2 chargers that could charge a car for about 8 to 11 hours, are naturally used for overnight charging. However, if you are a retired individual, who lives in CA (not cold Northern states), with lots of time who wants to experiment with EVs, without at home charging, go for it. The timing is good. But I don’t recommend buying the vehicles, because they have crappy resale values, they will also be obsolete in 3-5 years as new tech emerges. Try leasing for the shortest time possible. Or simply wait until 2026-27 Model Years. EVs will get much better in two to three years.
ICE Vehicles are So Easy! With gas cars or bikes, you have no worries whatsoever. You don’t have to care about range, or wasting 2 hours+ at a public charging station. When your fuel gauge shows low, you pull to one of several gas stations near you, with no line, fill up, with no need for a diploma in electrical engineering and you leave in 5 mins. How can EVs ever beat this? They might in 15 years, but only if we have “magic batteries.”
Our battery tech is garbage, they are extremely heavy and inefficient. Lithium belongs in the ‘80s. Our today’s batteries are the worst solution we could have come up with. They are slow to charge and quick to discharge. They are also their own worst enemy. They are so heavy and inefficient that they use a great deal of their energy just in pushing their own weight. This is nonsensical; to the point of being illogical.
Electric Vehicles are Extremely Heavy I was watching a walk around video of a famed 1959 Cadillac Eldorado on YT. These are some of the longest. largest and heaviest passenger cars ever made. They are almost 20 feet long. The ’59 is also known for its massive but somehow elegant fins. Those are being called the largest fins ever. The YouTuber said this massive car weighs a whopping 4,700 pounds. Near 5,000 pounds for a behemoth 1950s Caddy made with the strongest and heaviest parts from that era. I have news for you, the compact Korean EV crossover that I drove, for about 1,000 miles, also weighs in at 4,700 pounds. This is the hidden tragic aspect of electrics that no one talks about. This is worrying engineers and designers, but they can’t express it publicly. If you recall from the previous Issue, I quoted the Production Manager for BMW’s motorcycles division (who was quoting me without credit) that said the tech right now does not exist for a large displacement-equivalent electric motorcycle. In my estimation, if Honda planned to offer a electric Gold Wing today, with a real world range of 400 miles, with our primitive battery tech, that ‘Wing would have to weigh about 1,700 pounds. We are a long way away from an electric that can match the ease of ICE. That’s why there is no premium, large displacement e-moto market. It’s all vapor! Like the BMW dude said, they are waiting for a “magic battery.”
A Bedtime Horror Story A popular premium German automotive company, decided very smartly to follow Ford’s clever direction of offering an electric variant on a current model. Ford called the model F150 Lightning. The same truck as the F150, just with E power. Smart! The truck is not doing well in sales, but the idea is solid. It saves at least 3 to 4 years of development by offering the same vehicle in 2 ways, ICE and BEV. This premium German company, has a very popular compact model, that happens to be its best seller. They decided to offer this popular compact sedan in the BEV variant with no change to the body or the interior, it just sits on an EV skateboard (battery floor). The ICE variant of this compact weighs in at about 3,700 pounds for the rear drive version. In order to turn this car into an EV, they had to take out all the ICE elements. That includes the engine, drivetrain, fuel tank, transmission, clutch, radiator, and yards of hoses and cables. I would guess all that ICE parts could weigh about 1,200 pounds or more. I would also estimate that this German compact without those ICE parts, should weigh at about 2,500 pounds before electrification. Guess what happened when they finished the transition of that popular compact sedan to an EV. The curb weight went up to 4,700 pounds. I have estimated that the electrification added about 2,200 pounds to that compact car. All that for a 200-mile real world range in moderate driving conditions. There was a time that performance brands would proudly announce that they have managed to shave 100 pounds off of a new model. With our current primitive battery tech, all those weight saving achievements are out the door.
EVs Chew Up Tires and Destroy Suspension EV tires are supposed to last only around 15,000-18,000 miles, compared to 40K+ on ICE. These cars are so heavy, they chew up tires and eat up suspension. The Korean crossover, I put about 1,000 miles on, and the German I am testing, weigh close to 5,000 pounds each. These are not Chevy Suburbans or Hummers, they are compact cars, yet weight so much. This is criminal.
Is EV Charging Cheap? I recently went to an Electrify America charging station to charge the German car from 48% to about 99%. That is an equivalent of half a tank. It cost me $25. Keep in mind that rate was at Electrify America, had I gone to an EVgo station, I would have probably been billed about $30 for the same charge cycle. The ICE version of the German EV I am testing has a 15-gallon fuel tank, hence, half a tank would be 7.5 gallons. According to Google, average regular fuel price in CA is $5.50. So at the pump, the ICE version of this car would cost $41.25 for half a tank. EV charging seems like a good value here. However, in Florida, the average for regular gas is $3.60 and that makes for half tank of 7.5 gallons to cost about $27. Average regular gas price in TX is only $3.20 and that makes for half tank of 7.5 gallons to cost about $24. As you can see, unless you live in CA, or you have a dedicated at home Level 2 charger and you plan to use it after 9PM only for the best rates, there isn’t much financial advantage to owning EVs.
EVs are Fast, Right? Are EVs really fast? Yes and no. They leap like a panther with no lag, but both these cars hit 0-60 in just under 6 seconds. In fact, they both rate their cars at 5.8 secs. Back in the ‘80s 5.8 was fast, but these days it doesn’t impress. Today, 3 sec is the norm for a fast vehicle (car or bike) and 2 seconds is real fast. Not all EVs perform like a Tesla Model S Plaid and even if they did, they just burn through the battery lightning fast.
Spirited Riding or Driving = Very Low Range Let me explain EV range using something you use all the time, your phone. If you use your phone in a routine manner for calls, texts, searches, pics and so on, the battery will last awhile. But if you start watching movies or playing sophisticated advanced games the battery drains quickly. That’s how performance driving affects the batteries of cars or bikes. It drains them ultra-fast. Hence the range of today’s electric vehicles depends entirely on how you ride or drive them.
I Love Driving EVs I am loving driving EVs. They really were made for a guy like me, who is super tech savvy and loves advanced tech.
END OF PART 2: Tune in the next issue for more totally hype-free and unfiltered reporting and commentary on the state of the latest EV models from two very different countries and how it is to live the EV life without at home charging. PART 30 - March 20, 2024
My Ongoing EV Experiences on Two Legacy Brands - Part 1 - The Most Candid, Uncensored and Hype-Free EV Experience Report on Earth and on Musk’s Mars Colony My collection of unique, hype- and agenda-free, well-researched and uncensored articles on the state of EVs (2 and 4 wheels) have gotten a lot of attention. Not only BMW execs are quoting MOTO, and Elon Musk attacking my page on his quickly deteriorating Xwitter, but I have also received some notice from legacy car brands who are seriously into EV production. Sadly, none of this is translating into dollars for me. However, I have had access to two 2024 EVs from well-known car brands, from Korea and Germany. I will share my experiences, of the 1500 miles and counting, on the latest tech from these two countries that are aggressively pursuing EVs. You certainly can’t say that about Japan.
I am in the right state of union to drive EVs. This past winter proved EVs can’t really tackle the cold and the snow of the Northern states. In addition, generally speaking, they need to be charged often. Like a lot. Like every day. If you want to drive EVs and you don’t have access to at home Level 2 charging, you’d want to be in California, otherwise, you may be screwed. There could be some exceptions for Tesla users, because of their dedicated charging stations, but this new editorial will focus on non-Tesla cars (and bikes) and will cover the non-Tesla charging stations, such as Electrify America, EVgo and Volta.
Level 1, Level 2, Level 3 Charging, kW, kWh, Mi/kWh, Motor vs. Engine The new terms that are associated with the world of electric vehicles can be very confusing, regardless of the number of wheels. For bikes, cars, SUVs or trucks, this terminology is now standard. Below, I’ll try to offer a super simple explanation to clarify the confusion.
Motor vs Engine: The automotive industry has collectively agreed on calling the motor that powers the electric vehicles (bikes too) as a “motor” and the motor that powers ICE vehicles, an “engine.” This simplifies the phrasing for the sake of communication.
kW: Indicates Kilowatt (thousand Watts) and it is a measure of power of an electric motor.
kWh or kW/h: Indicates Kilowatt per hour which is a measure of the rate of transfer of charge also battery capacity. For example, 10 kW/h, means it will take 1 hour to transfer 10 kW of power.
Mi/kWh: Miles per Kilowatt hour, is a measure of consumption of power of any electric vehicle. In the rest of the world, they use kilometers. This shows, how many miles a car or bike can go using 1 Kilowatt of power. This is similar to miles per gallon, such as 25 MPG = 25 miles per 1 gallon of fuel. New electric cars normally get about 3 miles to 1 Kilowatt (on a good day). Hence, if they have an 80 kW/h battery, then their range can be theoretically estimated as 80X3=240 “useable” miles, only if its ridden or driven in a mild manner as not to increase the consumption. The consumption and the range are not set, they totally depend on how the vehicle is driven, plus ambient temperature, elevation changes and so on. If you get on the gas, your range can easily be cut in half or more. You read that right.
Level 1 Charging, Level 1 is your typical 110-120 Volt household plug. It might take 60 hours+ to charge an electric vehicle using household plug, that’s why the push for Level 2 charging at home.
Level 2 Home Charging: This is a 240 Volt dedicated home charger for electric vehicles. Many homes already use some type of 240V system, whether for the HVAC or washing machines, hence, it’s not too unusual to set one up. It might take about 10 hours to charge a new EV car using Level 2 chargers.
Level 2 Commercial Chargers: These are the same as L2 home chargers, but made available commercially. A lot of standalone public charging stations you may see at shopping malls, streets or hotels are just Level 2s pumping out about 7 kW/h worth of juice (might take 11 hours to fully charge an EV).
Level 3 or DC Fast Charging: This is only available at proper charging stations and the rate of speed in which these chargers work varies from about 50 to 150 to 350 kW/h. You can’t mistake them with the standalone slow chargers. These are similar to gas stations and have stalls for several vehicles. If you have a vehicle with a 100 kW/h battery, then a 50 kW/h charger should theoretically charge it in 2 hours. But in reality, it might take 2.5 to 3 hours to get to 100%. The same 100 kW/h battery might take about an hour for a full charge using a 150 kW/h charger and about 30 mins using the 350 kW/h charger if the vehicle has a charging system that can handle those higher numbers.
EVs are Hard – ICE is Easy After so far 1500 miles, with no access to at home Level 2 charging, I am now a bonified expert on EVs. I experienced the 350 kW/h chargers on the Korean crossover and it was amazing. If your car has a 350 kW/h charging system (they are rare) and it is matched with a charger that can deliver the same (also rare), you are golden. You can be out of there in under 20 mins from 40%. Whether superfast charging is good for the life of the battery is another matter. (Short answer is no.)
END OF PART 1: Tune in the next issue for more totally hype-free reporting and commentary on the state of the latest EV models from two very different countries and how it is to live the EV life without at home charging. PART 29 - March 20, 2024 BMW Motorcycles' Head of Production Quotes MOTO Verbatim, on Lack of Battery Tech to Support Premium e-Motos BMW Motorcycles’ current head of production’s interview with MCN UK reads just like one of my articles on the lack of battery tech to support large displacement-equivalent electric motorcycles. Since he is copying MOTO verbatim, he could have at least given us credit.
Considering that the motorcycle press and media are sell outs and all they do, night and day, is to heavily kiss the butts of the brands, the only way this BMW exec would have gotten this level of expert advice is through us. No one else, not a single outlet, has exposed the hypocrisy that exists in the premium electric motorcycles market. We stand alone in exposing how the battery tech is simply not there for a viable premium e-moto and we have pressed that again and again in so many Issues.
Generally speaking, the managers at BMW motorcycles in Germany last a year or two before moving on to something else. None of these guys want to be at the tiny motorcycles division. They use this experience to get a job at the car side, where the real prestige and growth potential reside. They also don’t have specific expertise; only general managerial skills and they simply quote industry experts (like MOTO) and try to sound smart.
The so-called "experts" BMW normally uses, can’t tell a motorcycle from a toaster oven, that’s how they ended up with the R18 fiasco. The R18 idea was so bad, that the former legendary BMW designer, Dave Robb, allegedly quit the company on the spot in protest. Did they care, no, because their so-called "experts" allegedly told them the R18 will be a real challenger for Harley-Davidson.
Read his comments, on why BMW board doesn’t feel the timing is right to create a new electric R1300GS equivalent. I would say the timing isn’t right to even create an electric F800GS equivalent.
These are not his thoughts; he is simply echoing BMW’s policy at this time. He’s being a good soldier, hence he starts with "we feel."
"We feel at the moment that it’s not the right time to just take our bikes and stuff some electric motors in and make it look like it was before. Some brands build motorcycles like that, but they’re not super successful at the moment." [Editor: True, there is no premium electric motorcycle industry, its all just vapor, the real market right now is in tiny and cheap people movers.]
"At the moment, as we all know, the tech is expensive, it is very heavy, we don’t have proper range to get a good power output, so those concepts that we see also from other manufacturers in the higher power output are not good for the market at the moment." [Editor: Basically, he is reemphasizing that the market for premium e-motos, such as Livewire (and one or two others), is nonexistent, so why should BMW bother, which is the right decision.]
"It would be super smart to go into e-fuels as soon as possible, or synthetic fuels, to get rid of the emissions that we have at the moment with all of the range. And, then look closely into the innovation of other concepts. Electric is one of them, but it’s probably not the answer to each and every thing – unless we come up with a magic battery with no weight, and an acceptable price, that gives us an acceptable range." [Editor: e-fuels are super expensive and rare and not a real solution. The reason these premium brands, such as BMW and Porsche, are promoting it is because they know the current electric cars are not what they can be, due to lack of battery tech. Battery tech is holding back the EV growth, hence they want to hedge their bets with e-fuels.]
My final thoughts. As I have been writing in my past editorials on this topic, not only there is lack of demand for expensive, high displacement equivalent e-motos, but the major brands aren’t even considering them at this time. The battery tech simply is not there. Cars have their entire floors full of batteries and they still get about 200-mile real world range. Motorcycles have no room for this class of batteries anyway. The premium motorcycle brands are waiting for “magic batteries”. PART 28 - January 18, 2024
Why Elon Musk is Harassing MOTO? Let me set this up for you. Several outlets including Forbes have been reporting that Elon Musk, who claims to support free speech, has been silencing his critics on X/Twitter. If you google this point, you’ll see many results from various outlets. Here’s one from Forbes.
Forbes, Jan 9, 2024, “Elon Musk Accused Of ‘Silencing His Critics’ As X Suspends Journalists.”
A while back, I received what I thought was an email prank from an anonymous disposable email, saying that Musk is reading my articles and his is not happy! Now, what type of a diluted individual, with all the money in the world, would care what micro-outlets have to say about him. Compared with the mega global news sites, we're microscopic.
Wall Street Journal has been bashing him for a solid year! They even reported on his alleged heavy drug use. Wall Street Journal, Jan. 6, 2024, “Elon Musk Has Used Illegal Drugs, Worrying Leaders at Tesla and SpaceX”
Apparently, I have gotten under his skin, because I have successfully deconstructted him. I wrote that in my personal opinion he was self-destructing. He is intentionally destroying himself to escape the burden of heavy responsibilities, since he doesn’t have the discipline nor the willpower to stop by himself. One can handle massive amount of workload in their in 20s, 30s and even 40s, but once you enter the 50s, the pressure would be highly damaging to the mental state, specially if one relies heavily on drugs. I have predicted that Musk will end up like Howard Hughes, paranoid and isolated.
Our Twitter account is The Need 4 Speed, or TN4S News Media for short, and we only cover news of high-end vehicles, with a focus on EVs and premium two-wheels. I never cared for Twitter, and the page has very few followers anyway. You’d think, that a’hole Musk would leave small players alone, but we noticed last month that he wouldn’t let the image of MOTO’s issue be shown on Twitter (we thought that it was a glitch). You can check now and see that the cover image for Issue 130 is blank. We didn’t think much of it, until the page received the notification from Twitter that he is silencing The TN4S News Media's account, for the generic reason of “spamming.” They use that phrase, because they can’t say, “for the reason of not flattering the boss of Twitter.” Spam? Take a look at our page, it’s solid with related articles within our field of interest. His warning notice is saying that he has shadow banned the page, meaning no one will see our posts. The next step is for him to delete that Twitter account. We wish he would do that, it would be extra fun to report on and would give me plenty of reasons to make a stink about.
Twitter is useless for small players anyway. It’s meant for government agencies, corporations and celebs. The only reason we don’t delete it is because we're curious what he will do next. I call Musk shadow banning MOTO's Xwitter account a badge of honor. What a hypocrite! PART 27 - November 28, 2023
EV Market Crash? Wall Street Journal, Nov. 17, 23, “Are Americans Falling Out of Love With EVs?” The Verge, Nov. 1, 23, “The EV Transition Trips Over its own Cord” Asia One, Oct.
25, 23, “More Alarm Bells Sound on Slowing Demand for Electric Vehicles” Public Pushback I don't blame the regular folks to reject EVs. There is a massive negative narrative being unleashed about the horrors of living with EVs from the likes of the head of Ford to Hertz rental customers and everyone else in between. Negative
Press Power
Grids May Not Deliver Extreme
Popularity of ICE Scooters E-Vehicles
Not as Green as Promised Two-Wheel
Efficient PART
26 - October 18, 2023 A reader asked me how I decided on the year 2026, for the end of dominance of Testla. I didn’t select the year '26 at random. Major auto brands can’t turn on a dime. The soonest they can put out new models is 5 years. In fact, they routinely plan 7 to 10 years ahead. They are also following two benchmarks, 2025 (for 2026 model year) and 2030 (2031 MY). By 2026 EVs will go fully mainstream and by 2031 they’ll dominate. Tesla’s FSD is just a program and it’s probably already stolen by the Chinese and once it gets updated it will get boosted again. Tesla’s dominance could not last past 2026, this is my prediction. Elon, by changing focus to the Twitter, forfeited the EV game already. GM, Mercedes and VW are extremely motivated to control the EV industry (VW sold 500K EVs last year). Koreans are trying hard too, but the Chinese are looking too good (compare to ICE manufacturing, building EVs is easy). The only issue with relying on China is the uncertainty of West’s future trade with them. Every day, I see news that China’s boom is over. If they get desperate, they might start a war. As much as I believe that the Chinese could potentially dominate EV sales globally, there is uncertainty about their future. PART
25 - June 7, 2023 There is a famous song by Tears for Fears with the line: “Everybody wants to rule the world.” There is another line in a Roger Waters‘ solo album Amused to Death, where he says “Give any one species too much rope and they will f**k it up.” The above 2 rules are absolute with no exceptions. Both are of course true with the now irrele vant Musk. I don’t care one way or another about him (really couldn’t care less), it’s just that he is killing Tesla cars on his way down. That dude turned into a BS artist and the bloom is off the rose, specially by claiming to have hired a new “w*ke” CEO for Twitter to promote “free speech.” That’s like hiring a vegan to run the meat industry. The dude is done! He is loved in China though--he should just move there and be taxed at 99%. Of course, the Chinese are no fools, they are poised to replace the Japanese in the new EV market by dominating the commuter segments. You can’t beat American pickups, German lux brands, or Italian exotics, so, they’ll be OK. It’s a tossup about the Koreans though, because the new BEVs coming out of China are real killers. Hence, the Chinese are sucking up to Musk for now, because they are copying all the data from his companies, including AI, autonomous and brain implants. Once they have what they need, they’ll move on. Musk is in for the shock of his life, “hey guys, wait up, I thought we were friends.” PART
24 - February 15, 2023 Here’s a very direct 5- point brutal advice to startups. 1- You must create demand. 2- You need brand awareness. 3- You need a large marketing budget. 4- Racing will ruin you, avoid at all cost. 5- You need exceptional beauty shots of your bikes. I am aware that an owner or a partner in a startup might think that their bike is the best vehicle in the world. Frankly, that means nothing to me nor to anyone else. No one asked for them to pop up in a 120-year-old industry packed with highly successful legacy companies, selling bikes by the millions. You won't move metal by boasting about engineering (you’ll never beat the likes of Honda, Kawasaki, BMW and Ducati in that department). However, you do need one thing. Balls? No, Hype. That’s the power of Hyperhype that Musk made famous. You must create demand for your new brand by hyping it and that will not be cheap. The Power
of Hyperhype is Only for Elite Players PART
23 - January 18, 2023 What a difference a month makes. Just in one month Tesla went from hero to zero purely due to the antics of its owner Elon Musk. I don’t see anything wrong with Tesla (short of emerging stiff Chinese competition), only if Musk exits the brand and focuses instead on being a "celebrity." That seems to be what he wants. The dude now fancies himself as a "powerful actor" rather than an industrialist, and has become severely addicted to coverage and accolades. He showed up on stage at a Dave Chappelle concert just to get applauds from the audience, instead he got booed off (this is a sign of a breakdown, and of someone looking for a fix to his addiction). I think I know what’s going on with Musk. Most of the planet, including Wall Street and the top investors in Tesla want him out. Tesla stock crashed almost 70% in 2022, and now Tesla has been forced to slash prices of their vehicles by as much as 20%. On top of that vehicle deliveries have slowed and wait times are gradually becoming a thing of the past. Of course, lower prices now qualify them for the new tax credit, hence their growth should recover. Musk
is Self-Destructing PART
22 - December 7, 2022 I wrote previously that there is not only any need or demand for electric premium motorcycles, but the current startups focused on this segment will not last. The term premium motorcycles point to high performance and high-end machines. Motorcycles are already green, and motorcycle riders will not pay $17K+ for an e-moto that is pure compromise--a bike that couldn't hold a candle to the likes of Kawa, Duc, Beemer, Hog and so on. Just about a week after my article there was an EU Parliament meet about the future of green transport and both Ducati and KTM representatives made similar arguments that they don’t see any reason to go electric at this time due to lack of demand and insufficient advanced tech to make the bikes on par with ICE. They suggested promotion of synth fuels (e-fuels) instead. Ducati was quoted as saying that a “high performance, high emotion electric Ducati could be long ways away.” Here’s the clincher, the 2035 Euro ICE ban will not affect motorcycles--so, there really isn’t any rush. PART
21 - December 7, 2022 I wrote previously
that Musk’s purchase of Twitter for that massive sum ($44B) is the
worst blunder in tech history, and it proves that he isn’t an idiot-savant
but just plain old idiot, because he fell for the biggest and longest
running con in history, vanity. He is suffering from the same type of
mind-f**k that prevented our former president from getting reelected--over
exposure and addiction to coverage! Musk also became addicted to coverage.
You might as well send him to a retirement home now--it’s all downhill
from here. It makes no difference if he saves the planet, brings back
the dinosaurs and finally mates with his dog Barf to create a race of
Mawgs, he is done. PART
20 - October 12, 2022 Elon is not unlike Howard Hughes. Hughes was also into several groundbreaking industries at the same time. He even owned a Hollywood studio for a while, made movies and dated every starlet in town. I don’t get how he could have been such a ladies’ man if he was a serious germophobe. Was he washing his hands during sex? Hughes: “Sorry
honey, I need to stop and wash my hands. I’ll be right back.”
Starlet (whining): “Again? You did that 5 mins ago.” ASIMO
Outdid the Tesla Bot 22 Years Ago Musk
Makes "Mawg" on Mars PART
19 - October 12, 2022 My editorial
from the last issue (117, Part 18), The Death of Premium Electric Motorcycles,
generated a great deal of comments from various sources. We received comments
from dealers, brand managers and readers. Also, soon after my detailed
editorial was released one of our US motorcycle media sites was motivated
to run an article about how e-bikes and e-motos are catching fire at record
rates. I won’t link to them, since they’ll never link to me.
But those articles are easily searchable. Out of all these replies, not
one wrote to challenge my comments. The only reply that might have a whiff
of a challenge was someone wrote in to say that ICE motorcycles aren’t
as green as I portrayed them to be (it’s covered below). Q.
Motorcycles aren’t green, because they also pollute. My car has better
exhaust than my 2006 motorcycle. (Ed: Key excerpt from a long comment
on FB.) Q.
In your editorial, did you also mean the brands X, Y & Z? (Ed: I am
blocking the brand names.) Q.
Spot on editorial about compromises. I bought a Tesla Model S, because
it’s better than an ICE in every possible way. In every possible
way you look at a Tesla it beats ICE cars, also the car changes and improves
every few months with over the air updates. I bought a Model 3 for my
daughter as well and she loves it. I demoed an e-moto (as you categorize
them) and hated it. Why would anyone want to put up $20,000 or $30,000
for a bike that is nothing but compromises. Everything on that expensive
electric bike was less fun, less impressive, less fast, less of a looker,
less confidence inspiring than my GS or Ducati. (ED: I ran most of this
comment, because it’s very relevant to my narrative.) Q.
I have lost all respect for our media since MOTO came along. I didn’t
realize what sellouts they are until I read what real independent reporting
is like. It’s shocking that your bombshell analyses of our industry
are being intentionally ignored by those sites. Q.
I wanted to write in and say that we agree with you, but. We have a large
multiline dealer and of course these expensive e-bikes can’t compare
to a Ducati or a Yamaha R1. They may one day, but not now. The few who
order them have other bikes and look for something unusual or they like
the fact they are riding electric. They don’t buy them to really
ride them or put massive miles, they're just for riding around and to
show them off. PART
18 - September 14, 2022 Due to lack of demand, major motorcycle manufacturers aren’t yet ready to enter the premium electric market (known as eMotos), the void has created a temporary window for startups to take a crack at this segment. It’s important not to confuse small people movers, scooters and urban vehicles with eMotos. An eMoto would be a true equivalent in every way to BMW's big GS, or Ducati’s Multistrada or Panigale or Yamaha R1. We are at least 6 years away from anything remotely that potent and versatile in the world of premium electric motorcycles. Tesla won early because it didn’t offer a compromise. It made vehicles that were superior to ICE in every way, especially in the tech and performance dept. 3 secs 0-60 on Teslas is the norm (in a world where 7 secs is not too uncommon) and its performance models bring that down to under 2 secs. No rider will pay $20K for an eMoto full of compromises, when they can buy superb premium ICE bikes now. E-Motos
Got No Game Motorcycles
are Green Already E-Motos
are a Poor Substitute for the Real Thing The Tesla
Teen Crush Best Selling
Car in CA is a Tesla Automotive
Execs Didn’t Sign up to Keep Up with Tesla VW
Group's Message to Legacy Execs – Keep Calm and Don’t be Annoying Nespresso
Station Chatter on VW Executive Floor Unfit
For Command? Motorcycles
Don’t Have Skateboards The
E-Moto Excitement is Not There Anymore Too Fat,
Too Slow, Unreliable, Could Catch Fire, Lack of Resale Value, No Useable
Range PART
17 - July 13, 2022 I’ve been fully immersed in the world of BEVs (battery electric vehicles) for some time, in both car/truck and eMotos. Also, with the new eVTOLs (electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles) that are gradually going to be released to the public. I covered one of the best eVTOLs in the last issue—Jetson One. We
Blew It The
Pinnacle of ICE Expression for Premium Motorcycles The US Premium
Riders Love the Vroom What
Do We Have in the World of eMotos? If you are an EV or eMoto startup and want to talk electric brand expansion tactics for the US market, feel free to contact me. PART
16 - March 16, 2022 A. Being a fully independent publication not only means that we aren’t concerned with the opinions or demands of brands, it also implies that we aren’t swayed by reader comments either. By 2030, the vast majority of new non-commercial vehicles in the US will be electric. By 2035 you won’t be able to register a new ICE vehicle in many states. Electric is the most important topic on the minds of vehicle manufacturers right now. What you call “worship” is in fact foresight. 98% of the people can’t see pass their own noses, hence the reason for all of our global troubles. For those of us that do, we’ve been attuned to blaze alone. Don’t worry, petrol burning vehicles are not going away in your lifetime. The premium and large displacement motorcycles market lags behind the car side on wholly converting to electric due to low demand. By 2030, there will still be hundreds of thousands of used bikes, plus millions of used ICE cars on our roads. I’ve written about this before; this planet will not be able to kill off petrol usage completely for at least another 80 years. PART 15 - February 12, 2022
Is
the Game Totally Over for E-Moto Startups? Major brands with century of history take no prisoners and aren’t going to be outmaneuvered by small startups. The only exception to this rule is of course Tesla, but Tesla was sustained by many billions of dollars in subsidies mixed with Elon Musk’s unstoppable Hyperhype publicity machine. The small e-moto startups with a handful of employees, no history or sales and reliability track records and unenticing resale values have no chance. That’s just the simple fact of this business. The upcoming all electric future will be a boon for Euro brands. Their current quirkiness is keeping them small, but once they go electric, they’ll have a real chance to compete with the Japan 4 in sales volume—only if they get out of their own way. I have a feeling that the future all electric Ducati will still keep within a 60K volume. But BMW could potentially hit a million units. With that damn boxer engine out of the way, the sky is the limit for the Bavarians. PART 14 - January 12, 2022
It’s
2022 – Say Hello to the Unescapable Avalanche of Electrics Ducati's
E-Moto Mule Caught Testing Electric
- The Real Equalizer PART 13 - November 17, 2021
Exclusive
Insight on Ducati’s Weird EV Gambit Electric
is Not Exotic – What is Ducati Really Thinking? Future Racing
Edge or Brand Survival? Do E-Motos
Dream of Electric Personality? Disposable
Vehicles and Autonomous Racing PART 12 - June 9, 2021
E-Moto
Design Magic II - There's No Secret Sauce A
Total Game Changer A
200-Year-Old Tech A
3-Year Window PART 11 - May 12, 2021
E-Moto
Design Magic The
Power of Hyperhype No
One Needs Premium - The Must-Have Feel PART
10 - October 14, 2020 With engines out of the way, the future of vehicle manufacturing will become like the tech industry. It will not be any different than building a computer or mobile device. All computers and mobile devices run on exactly the same platforms, they function by chips and drives made by a small group of parts suppliers. The differences are operating systems, capacity, features and design. That's all! Vehicles will become exactly like that. All future electric vehicles, no matter the number of wheels, will be based on the same overall platform relying on maybe 2 or 3 power plant parts suppliers. The rest is just design, interior materials, power ratings and features. Bikes will not be an exception to this rule. Brands that are known as engine makers such as Ducati, Honda, H-D and BMW all are lauded because of their mastery of creating their unique power plants. With no engines they're just left with batteries and unified drivetrains, exactly like the tech industry. I can't wait for a world without ICE, but that's at least 70 to 100 years away. Since banning the sale of new vehicles will have no immediate impact on hundreds of millions of ICE vehicles already on our roads. PART
9 - February 25, 2020 However, that gives our friends in the e-moto startups a solid 3-year window to establish their brands and to create successful brand association and demand for their premium bikes. If you're thinking that no low-end electric is going to steal the spotlight from a premium offering, keep in mind that EV's are going to become extremely affordable. It's cheaper overall to make an electric with much fewer parts than an ICE vehicle. As the cost of batteries (key expense) continue to drop the offerings will become much less costly. However, there is always room for some premiums and as I've written about this in so many articles, the only path to success for premium brand demand is brand association with buyers wanting to be seen with your brand, I call that the Tesla Effect. if you can't establish a "must have feel" for your premium e-moto brand in the next 3 years, it may become too late, since by 2025 the market will get saturated by multitude of offerings. PART
8 - October 24, 2019 Most motorcycle companies being fundamentally manufacturers of industrial products have a hard time grasping premium marketing, branding and rider engagement. They think just by putting on a fresh coat of paint, upping the power or range by a bit and offering some type of incentive the riders will flock to their bikes. And this is as true for e-motos as is for ICE. Stats for new bike sales in the US sadly prove otherwise. You can write as much as you want about how technically advanced your latest E2Ws are, but riders will not embrace them and willingly put down large amounts of $ until you have successfully created a "must have" feel, a sense of pride of ownership and brand association for your product. Riders of new premium bikes want to be looked upon with a sense of awe as they pull in to their favorite motorcycle hangout. And not the opposite such as "you paid that much for that," or "you could've gotten 3 of these for that." It's all about the branding, everything else is secondary. PART
7 - August 21, 2019 It has taken 150 years for the public to take electric cars seriously, but the e-moto industry is on a slower trajectory. The real market for E2Ws is going to be in Asia of course even tough they'll be mostly inexpensive small people movers. India specially is going to take electric scooters very seriously. However, US and Europe will open up to premium cutting-edge e-motos eventually. In Europe tangible market penetration in 5 years is very much a possibility, that's if BMW, Ducati, KTM and Triumph decide to join Harley and Energica in that market. The US is a different story but the good news is that since most of the players here are startups, they aren't betting on tens of thousands of units to survive. As startups running on gusto instead of lots of greenbacks they're set up to operate quite successfully in much more modest volumes. Yes, we're in the Wild West days of electric motorcycles, the era of pioneers and early settlers. These are historic times and MOTO is proud to be a part of the continuing evolution of the US premium motorcycles industry. PART
6 - July 24, 2019 "Go where you're admired," is a phrase used in the world of standup comedy. I'd like to toss that up to all my friends and colleagues in the North American e-moto industry. The US market is graying and most are happy where they are. You certainly can't win all the people, but in our market you can't even win most of the riders with your awesome new tech. You can however create missionaries and zealots out of passionate several thousands who would be interested to put your bikes in their garages and plug them in. So ignore all the online noise from the luddites and focus on tech savvy early adopters. As the innovators dwelling in the cutting-edge you're in it for the long haul. Focus on supporters of the EV movement only. PART
5 - June 20, 2019 The latest movement is to ditch the push scooters and go with small e-motos. Here you have the ultimate in disposable vehicles. You can use these sidewalk e-motos at practically zero cost. There is no upfront ownership payment, no depreciation, no maintenance, no insurance, no charging, no garaging or worrying about where to park and no wear and tear issues. Just ride and toss. This is not going to create future riders who would want to put up $20K for a motorcycle. However, what we can learn from our peers in the car industry is to offer more ways for people to ride new bikes in the US. Our industry is lagging behind on select leasing, personalized rentals and subscription based offerings and electric motorcycles are primed to take advantage of all these new cutting-edge services. PART
4 - May 8, 2019 A lot of e-motos coming out carry large price tags, which focuses their market not on the young and tech savvy but the old school boomers, and that's the big dilemma of premium e-motos in the US market. Having said that, once the Asians hit the US market with cheap electric two-wheels that would be a different story, but with all the ride-sharing electric scooters and mopeds being placed on our sidewalks everyday why would younger gens want to own one at all. This brings us to the Power of Hyperhype and the Tesla Effect. The market for high-tech, premium bikes still resides with the boomers and older Gen Xers and the way to their hearts is with successful branding and creating a must-have feeling. All that has been discussed in my many original editorials, links to which are available at the top. PART
3 - April 24, 2019 An e-moto makes no sound. That's a double-whammy. Every e-moto I've seen is simply invisible. And this is the inherent danger of this new tech. We already aren't seen by drivers and now thanks to battery power we aren't heard either. What's the solution? The solution is not to add simulated sound of course but to up the visibility on these bikes. It's crucial for all companies working on new electric motorcycles to borrow the incredible new LED lighting tech being used by car brands and make sure these bikes have great front, side and rear LED daylight conspicuity. Yes, there is V2V and radar tech in the works but that will not be enough, since tens of millions of cars on our roads are older models! PART
2 - April 17, 2019 The Future is Electric catchphrase is spot on. This also means EVs of all types will not remain exotica for long. All brands are either planning or working on e-motos. Once the Asians hit the market in a big way, it would be game over for the small guys, unless they've been paying attention to my columns and got behind their branding in a major way before it's too late. For premium players relying on small volumes branding is everything. I've given ample examples in my various articles in the Woes Series and in the Power of Hyperhype. PART
1 - March 27, 2019 Speaking only of motorcycles, in a few years, there'll be several lower priced Asian variants, sleek higher trim Euros and quirky American versions. Basically just the way the industry is today, except ICE goes, batteries enter. In such an unavoidable near future crowded market, small companies and startups with few dealerships and little brand awareness in the US, would have no chance against the majors. So what's the solution? Work on your branding now and invest as much as you can into marketing and rider engagement. I strongly recommend these small e-moto brands with tiny budgets not to waste their limited resources on racing (it's futile and a money pit), instead start building your reach to handle the upcoming swarm of electrics from every direction. |
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